The time is upon us once more, ladies and gentlemen. Even though we, as country fans, might belittle the CMA Awards for taking a narrow view of the broader country music universe, it’s always a solid barometer for success when someone we see as special gets recognized as such by Nashville’s preeminent award show. For instance, Zach Top scored five nominations in this year’s categories. There’s no mistaking it now; he’s not just blowing up in our hearts and on Spotify; Top is a superstar by every viable standard in country music.
Time will tell how long we’ll have to wait for a Muscadine Bloodline or Flatland Cavalry to get their due on this stage; until then, join me as we peruse these categories and assess the most likely contenders in each. These picks will also factor in commercial success, as well as CMA voters’ longstanding predisposition towards certain acts (*cough cough*, Chris Stapleton). But since some of these categories already feel earmarked for certain nominees, we’ll be picking BOTH a front-runner and a dark horse contender. Now, how’s that for value?
Entertainer of the Year
- Luke Combs
- Cody Johnson
- Chris Stapleton
- Morgan Wallen
- Lainey Wilson
This is a fairly similar category compared to last year, and none of these acts, except for Cody Johnson, would exactly shock anyone. After giving the awards the cold shoulder despite being crowned with the show’s biggest prize, it’s hard to imagine that Morgan Wallen has any shot to repeat. Luke Combs has kept a pretty low profile lately, despite releasing an album in 2024, but as one of country music’s most established young touring presences and a consistently worthy ambassador for the format, he should be seen as the strongest contender.
Even so, there are two crucial things to remember:
- When in doubt, Stapleton is usually a safe bet.
- Since Lainey Wilson nabbed this award the same year she was opening dates for Hardy, anything’s possible.
- Front-runner: Luke Combs
- Dark Horse: Chris Stapleton
Single of the Year
Award goes to Artist(s), Producer(s), and Mix Engineer(s)
- “4x4xU” – Lainey Wilson (Producer: Jay Joyce, Mix Engineers: Jason Hall, Jay Joyce)
- “Ain’t No Love In Oklahoma” – Luke Combs (Producers: Luke Combs, Chip Matthews, Jonathan Singleton, Mix Engineer: Chip Matthews)
- “Am I Okay?” – Megan Moroney (Producer: Kristian Bush, Mix Engineer: Justin Niebank)
- “I Never Lie” – Zach Top (Producer: Carson Chamberlain, Mix Engineer: Matt Rovey)
- “you look like you love me” – Ella Langley & Riley Green (Producer: Will Bundy, Mix Engineer: Jim Cooley)
This may be the most interesting category of the year, with so many massive songs represented. The CMA Awards are always pretty quick to crown the next big female star, which puts Ella Langley firmly in the driver’s seat to take this one, thanks to her breakout smash hit (deservingly so).
Just looking at pure consumption, “Ain’t No Love In Oklahoma” should have a decent shot, but somehow feels a bit too obvious for this voting community. Besides, it’s tough to shake the nagging fear that they’ll give this one to Lainey Wilson and have us all rolling our eyes at our TVs once again.
- Front-runner: “you look like you love me”
- Dark Horse: “4x4xU”
Album of the Year
Award goes to Artist, Producer(s), and Mix Engineer(s)
- Am I Okay? – Megan Moroney (Producer: Kristian Bush, Mix Engineer: Justin Niebank)
- Cold Beer & Country Music – Zach Top (Producer: Carson Chamberlain, Mix Engineer: Matt Rovey)
- F-1 Trillion – Post Malone (Producers: Louis Bell, Charlie Handsome, Hoskins, Mix Engineer: Ryan Gore)
- I’m The Problem – Morgan Wallen (Producers: Jacob Durrett, Charlie Handsome, Joey Moi, Mix Engineers: Charlie Handsome, Joey Moi)
- Whirlwind – Lainey Wilson (Producer: Jay Joyce, Mix Engineers: Jason Hall, Jay Joyce)
This is a confusing group, with no obvious standout to speak of. F-1 Trillion easily had the biggest singles, but as a project, it feels like it came and went; Am I Okay? and Cold Beer & Country Music were both impactful, but neither one exactly tore up the charts, or had more than two notable singles apiece.
It’s still fair to wonder if Wallen’s absence at last year’s award show and public indifference towards taking home the Entertainer of the Year trophy could hurt his chances here. Even so, it’s the only truly massive album represented, and it certainly deserves some consideration.
That leaves the tragically inevitable Whirlwind, which averages the lowest streaming numbers of the bunch. The CMA voters have already demonstrated their resolve to defend Lainey Wilson at all costs, and in the absence of a clear favorite, you have to wonder if this will land in her lap by default.
- Front-runner: Whirlwind
- Dark Horse: I’m The Problem
Song of the Year
Award goes to Songwriter(s)
- “4x4xU” (Songwriters: Jon Decious, Aaron Raitiere, Lainey Wilson)
- “Am I Okay?” (Songwriters: Jessie Jo Dillon, Luke Laird, Megan Moroney)
- “I Never Lie” (Songwriters: Carson Chamberlain, Tim Nichols, Zach Top)
- “Texas” (Songwriters: Johnny Clawson, Josh Dorr, Lalo Guzman, Kyle Sturrock)
- “you look like you love me” (Songwriters: Riley Green, Ella Langley, Aaron Raitiere)
Once again, “you look like you love me” ought to have a pretty secure foothold on this category, not only due to its commercial prowess, but also the fact that it’s a well-written tune with throwback sensibilities. From a pair of mainstream stars, that could go a long way. “Am I Okay?” deserves some consideration as well, thanks to the hitmakers credited to it.
I’ve glazed over Zach Top’s impressive inclusion in these major categories only because it feels like more of a vote of confidence for the future than an opportunity to truly contend right now. “I Never Lie” was massive, but he still feels a bit too new to compete in a category like this.
Oh yeah, what on earth is Blake Shelton doing here?
- Front-runner: “you look like you love me”
- Dark Horse: “Am I Okay?”
- Female Vocalist of the Year
- Kelsea Ballerini
- Miranda Lambert
- Ella Langley
- Megan Moroney
- Lainey Wilson
Until such time as I’m proven wrong, I will always assume that this is Lainey Wilson’s category to lose. In a more populist contest, Megan Moroney would have several of these under her belt by now, but with Lainey being such an entrenched industry favorite, it would take a bigger commercial boom than Am I Okay? offered to unseat her.
If the CMA voters opt to bestow their favor on Ella Langley early, as they did with Carly Pearce, this would be an exciting place to do it.
- Front-runner: Lainey Wilson
- Dark Horse: Ella Langley
Male Vocalist of the Year
- Luke Combs
- Cody Johnson
- Chris Stapleton
- Zach Top
- Morgan Wallen
Chris Stapleton doesn’t have any layup wins in this year’s awards, so you have to pencil him in to take this category. It’s entirely deserved, but remains as boring and rubber-stamped as it did back in 2017.
Morgan Wallen could also make a run at it on sheer popularity, but it doesn’t feel like anyone else in 2025 has both the recent accomplishments and status to justify a win.
- Front-runner: Chris Stapleton
- Dark Horse: Morgan Wallen
Vocal Group of the Year
- Lady A
- Little Big Town
- Old Dominion
- Rascal Flatts
- The Red Clay Strays
There’s no reason to expect that the most absurd tradition in country music will not continue in 2025. As much as we may root for the Red Clay Strays, Old Dominion will win this award, with no momentum or recent successes to hang it on. It will just happen, because it always happens, and why wouldn’t it happen again?
You wish that just one time, the band might get bored enough to try to mix things up and actually earn it, but as easy as this trophy comes for them, you can’t blame them for staying in their comfort zone. God forbid we actually have expectations for our seven-time, consecutive CMA award winners.
- Front-runner: Old Dominion
- Dark Horse: No one, sadly
Vocal Duo of the Year
- Brooks & Dunn
- Brothers Osborne
- Dan + Shay
- Maddie & Tae
- The War And Treaty
This category is a lot like the one that precedes it, but with no obvious standout. Brooks & Dunn released a second iteration of their Reboot re-record project, which briefly brought them back into the zeitgeist, but as a legacy act, it doesn’t feel like they’re really pushing themselves to the limit. That opens the door for…
uh…
well…
Nope, nevermind. Better make room for that 20th trophy, boys!
- Front-runner: Brooks & Dunn (by default)
- Dark Horse: Muscadine Bloodline (to out-sell all five of these acts in 2026)
Musical Event of the Year
Award goes to Artists and Producer(s)
- “Don’t Mind If I Do” – Riley Green (feat. Ella Langley) Producers: Scott Borchetta, Jimmy Harnen, Dann Huff
- “Hard Fought Hallelujah” – Brandon Lake (feat. Jelly Roll) Producer: Micah Nichols
- “I’m Gonna Love You” – Cody Johnson (feat. Carrie Underwood) Producer: Trent Willmon
- “Pour Me A Drink” – Post Malone (feat. Blake Shelton) Producers: Louis Bell, Charlie Handsome
- “You Had To Be There” – Megan Moroney (feat. Kenny Chesney) Producer: Kristian Bush
Of all the categories for “you look like you love me” to not be nominated, this is certainly a surprise, especially with Green and Langley’s lesser-known duet represented instead. That leaves an odd void where it feels like an obvious “event” of the year should be.
Cody Johnson is on the outside looking in of just about every category he’s nominated in, and considering the CMA Awards’ lifelong debt to Carrie Underwood for Garth Brooks’s baffling 2019 Entertainer of the Year win, their duet feels like a solid guess.
Maybe they throw Post Malone a bone in a “please keep liking country music, we love you,” sort of way? This one is a big question mark overall.
- Front-runner: “I’m Gonna Love You” (but also no one really)
- Dark Horse: “Pour Me A Drink”
New Artist of the Year
- Ella Langley
- Shaboozey
- Zach Top
- Tucker Wetmore
- Stephen Wilson Jr.
As the most commercially successful act here, Ella Langley should be the obvious front-runner, but it’s very clear that the CMA Awards are ready to embrace Zach Top. Signed to an independent label, it’s hard to see him competing here, but he definitely has the sales to stake his claim.
If Shaboozey wins, we riot.
- Front-runner: Ella Langley
- Dark Horse: Zach Top
