The leaves (at least here in East Tennessee, I’m gonna go out on a limb and say the palms in Florida are still green) are just starting to change, and the heat is finally breaking, but the hot headlines powering the CC50 continue to roll in. Wallen had a fantastic month, selling out Neyland twice and retaking the top spot in the rankings, Zach Top continues to ride the album wave from Cold Beer and Country Music and put up eye-popping numbers, and Thomas Rhett dropped out of the CC50 for the first time – in the same month he released an album. Here’s the full numbers chart for September:
Looking beyond the key headlines mentioned above, there are some interesting things that stand out this month. First, George Strait continues to have staying power leading up to his album release, holding onto his top-10 ranking. It will be very interesting to see if the audience judges Cowboys and Dreamers (released between September’s voting and now) to have lived up to the hype or if he will see some drop-off in October. Parker McCollum was the only artist in the top half of the rankings to see a drop in interest but should see some bounce back in October after an excellent duet with Miranda Lambert on “Santa Fe.” Long-term CC50 staple Rhett fell out this month, and Blake Shelton could be right behind him in October, as he fell below 20% Interest for the first time in CC50 history (an excellent indicator that an artist will fall out of the rankings).
Biggest Risers and Fallers
Ella Langley, as expected, followed up her big CC50 debut with a great sophomore performance, pushing past 40% Interest and jumping into the top 15. It’s fun to see new artists succeeding like this. It has been remarkable how many success stories we’ve seen in the CC50 recently. ZB finally got some good news after a rough few months, but he is still on the outside looking in at the podium, as he remains fourth this month. Despite not much recent music except the entirely uninspiring “Lies Lies Lies,” Wallen continues to be as hot as the Tennessee Athletic Department, using this 3-point bump to reclaim the top spot.
But for all these success stories, I want to focus on Zach Top for a minute. It’s hard to know what to say after singing his praises in this column for the last few months and talking about how remarkable his sudden success has been, but he continues to put up jaw-dropping numbers. 6 months ago, he was languishing as a wildcard with 20% Interest, and now he is top-10 with 6 in 10 CC50 voters interested in his new releases. Just look at the chart below; that’s unbelievable growth. Eventually, he’ll hit the ceiling; even Wallen and Combs can’t break past 75% Interest, but for now, Top seems to be an unstoppable force.
September was disappointing for a handful on the back half of the CC50. Midland fell out right before Barely Blue was released (and what suddenly seems a very apt album title), and 49 Winchester, Shelton, and Adcock flirted with the cutoff line, sinking below 20% for the first time. Leavin’ the Holler briefly got 49 Winchester back into the CC50, but it doesn’t seem to be giving them a lasting boost and they will quite likely find themselves back in the wildcard voting this month or next. Parker McCollum, the last name on this list, will be completely fine. He hadn’t released much recently, but that changed since September’s voting, with both “What Kind of Man” and “El Paso” bringing that Parker sound we’ve gotten used to loving. October should be a return to form for him.
Quick Hits
Album releases continue to be the #1 driver in Interest increase (barring a viral moment), and a successful album can give an extended boost over several months. Zach Top, Meg Moroney, and Ella Langley are great examples of that this month, seeing boosts from recent well-received albums. At a certain point, we’ll probably see these numbers flatten out, but because of the delayed reaction from listeners (many don’t stumble across an album until months after its initial release) this could carry on through the end of the year.
Conversely, a bland or disappointing album can hurt an artist’s interest, especially if artists are hanging onto CC50 relevancy. Thomas Rhett and Midland failed to connect with their album releases and dropped out this month. Based on some preliminary wildcard voting, Thomas Rhett will be back in the CC50, probably as soon as next month, but this may be the final knell for Midland. If this is it, let’s take a moment and appreciate the colorful neotraditional band. Let It Roll Back in 2019 remains one of my all-time favorite albums with songs like “Cheatin’ Songs” and “I Love You, Goodbye” feeling right at home alongside the Texas country of decades long past. And, of course, “Drinkin’ Problem” remains one of the greatest drinking songs of all time.
After a slow August, overall listener interest bounced back in September, with a percentage of 36.2% (indicating that the average artist on the CC50 has 3.5 in 10 audience members interested in their releases). The overall vote count was 311,125.
Wildcard Watch
2024 has continued to be a strong year for wildcards, with Ella Langley joining Strait, Post Malone, and Zach Top as a strong debater set up for long-term success. Unfortunately, it’s still almost as hard to make it in the CC50 as it is to make it in Nashville, and for every Langley, five others are bouncing back and forth in CC50 WIldcard purgatory. August’s wildcards fall into the latter category, with only Scotty Mcreery and Kameron Marlowe surviving September’s voting. This actually marks Mcreery’s high water mark after several short-lived CC50 stints. We’ll see if it sticks, but “Gettin’ Old” with Callista Clark seems to have moved the needle for him. September’s wildcards are Waylon Wyatt, Jelly Roll, Bayker Blankenship, The Castellows, and Ty Myers, 4 of which are first-timers, which is always interesting. The Castellows’ “Sober Sundays” with Wyatt Flores has been one of my favorite songs of the year, so seeing them break through is exciting.
As always, thanks for joining me back here! I was going to say there are a million other things y’all could be doing. Still, if you’ve made it this far, you’re probably a true CC50 ragamuffin and understand that reading about random country music numbers is the most important thing you could do. I hope y’all are enjoying this college football season as much as I am (assuming you aren’t an FSU fan, in which, my condolences). I’ll admit, I was skeptical of an expanded CFP originally, but it has really amped up the discussion of some of the peripheral teams and games, which has definitely made for a more interesting product. Plus, what’s not to love about the Vols top-5 and undefeated? If I can still say that drinks may have to be on me in next month’s column, meaning UT beat Alabama. See y’all then!
