Inside the CC50 – May ‘24
School may be out, but your fearless Country Central team continues to tirelessly pump out CC50 content (read: one scatter-brained guy sitting in the sun, drinking a beer, and typing ideas to see what sticks). May was a big month in the country music world, with the release of the much-anticipated Wallen-Post Malone collab, the first new George Strait song in 5 years, the beginning of the “Twister” soundtrack rollout, not to mention releases from Zach Bryan, Thomas Rhett, Meg Moroney, HARDY, Keith Urban, Lainey Wilson… you get the idea. We also saw the first real AI debate in country music, and the “Is the Beyonce album country” narrative finally died out, so I’ve decided to mention it again to get everyone riled up one more time. Let’s see how all that shook out in the numbers.
Zach Bryan has again surged back into the top spot after Luke Combs unseated him in April. He also did the same to Wallen back in February, so despite some signs of weakening, he is still the artist to beat. June’s voting will be worthwhile monitoring as a referendum on Wallen’s “I Had Some Help” and ZB’s “Pink Skies.” Luke Combs’s release for the Twister soundtrack, “Ain’t No Love in Oklahoma,” has received less attention but was also excellent, which could lead to a three-way race to the top next month. ERNEST and Zach Top unsurprisingly had breakout months, and 3 Wildcards landed spots in next month’s CC50 voting.
Biggest Risers and Fallers
Well, it’s clear what the most successful spring releases were. Fresh off of their new full-length albums Cold Beer and Country Music and NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE, Zach Top, and ERNEST rolled to huge May Interest gains. Interest rates are expected to bump from releases, but 10% and 6% are massive, especially for top-25 artists like them. ERNEST now moves to #13, with Zach Top behind at #17. This is a big win for traditional production, as both albums felt like throwbacks instrumentally and lyrically in an era dominated by folksier acoustic low-production or in-your-face pop-in production. Jon Pardi has fallen in popularity, but this unlikely duo can continue to carry the steel and fiddle mantle. Further down the list, Riley Green continues to ride a positive surge from his album last month.
Combs appears in the most extensive fallers list one week after claiming the top spot. This has been a common trend among the top 5 artists, with each taking turns surging and falling back to their average level of interest. There is likely some white noise/regression causing this, especially when Combs had no material news/music. His excellent “Ain’t No Love In Oklahoma,” released a few weeks ago, could see him bounce back next month. HARDY and RCS both make appearances again, continuing their cold streaks for opposite reasons (releasing poorly received music, not releasing music). However, RCS notably released their first song seemingly forever, so better days could await them in June’s voting.
Quick Hits
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Besides the drama at the top of the rankings, the biggest story of the month was probably Willie Nelson blowing up the rankings after his release “The Border.” He is easily the most established artist currently included in the CC50, and a good reminder that only artists presently releasing music are eligible for inclusion in the rankings. This opens an exciting door as Randy Travis and George Strait loom with recent releases. Of course, voters should remember that the CC50 measures excitement for new music. If we were ranking an artist’s whole catalog, putting Strait at #1 would be easy. Still, Nelson, Travis, and Strait are being judged on the merits of the recently released music and the anticipation for potential upcoming music.
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The jury remains out on the split two-day voting that we have now done in April and May. It has generated more engagement overall, but we’ll see how it holds up over the next few months and evaluate whether to keep the format or return to doing it all on the same day. Let us know on the CC50 post comments what you think about it!
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For as long as the CC50 has existed, the ZB, Wallen, Combs, CoJo, and Stapleton group has been a very convenient “Big 5” as they’ve consistently been tight and had a big gap over the rest of the artists. However, that gap is narrowing with Green’s success with his most recent album and Stapleton’s minor slide in interest. What was once a 15-point gap is now down to under six and could close even further if Green’s album continues to age well (which seems likely; “Jesus Saves” is an easy song of the year contender).
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Overall interest increased again in May, with a percentage of 40.3% (indicating that the average artist on the CC50 has 4 in 10 audience members interested in their releases). The overall vote count was 379,441.
Wildcard Watch
After rough showings the last few months, May’s wildcards performed far better, with three (Nelson, Wetmore, and Kameron Marlowe) finishing ahead of the 45th slot cutoff and landing spots in June’s voting. Kent and Fleet continued their up-and-down journey by returning to the wildcard pool with the 47th and 50th spots, respectively. Wetmore was a particularly interesting success story, as he has only released two songs on Spotify yet has managed to marshal significant enthusiasm behind him. As discussed earlier, Nelson is also an exciting story to watch. Based on the name recognition, I expect him to get a big push of support in the next few months, but it is only possible to see him sustain this by increasing his new music output.
Lyric of the Month
“I never thought that this is where I’d settle down
I thought I’d die an old man back in my hometown
They gave me this plot of land
Me and some other men, for a job well done
And I’m proud to be on this peaceful piece of property
I’m on sacred ground, and I’m in the best of company
I’m thankful for those thankful for the things I’ve done
I can rest in peace
I’m one of the chosen ones
I made it to Arlington.”
Trace Adkins, Arlington
With Memorial Day falling in May, it only seems fitting to feature a song honoring those who fell serving America. Patriotism and country music have gone together for as long as the genre has existed, so there is much to choose from. Still, Adkins’s Arlington goes beyond simple flag-waving and takes a more reflective angle on sacrifice. This moving song gives the listener a bit of a surprise, revealing that the narrator is, in fact, one of the fallen himself. The lyrics intentionally keep a generic tone (“a man in a white house” rather than “the President in the White House”) describing the soldier’s surroundings, highlighting their relative insignificance without the soldier’s service. It also takes a flashback to when the fallen soldier was a boy visiting his grandfather’s grave in the very same cemetery where he now has the honor of being buried. Little details like this involve the listener and lend weight to the lyrics. Overall, it is a fitting tribute and an excellent Memorial Day song.
Thanks for joining me again this month as we tried to make some heads or tails out of May’s wall of CC50 numbers. There are a lot of interesting stories and trends tucked away in those green and red percentages, and it’s always fun digging into them with y’all! That said, I have a baseball game to watch, so I’ll leave y’all to your graduation parties and Memorial Day barbecues, and we’ll meet back here in June!
