Inside the CC50 – March ‘24
After last month’s whirlwind of headlines and narratives, March gave us a much-needed breather. While there were more notable releases than in February, any month would feel routine after the deluge of arrests, label drama, and arguments about Beyonce that we had to brave last month. But we can’t get too comfortable in this lull; summer and its extensive lineup of significant releases and inevitable storylines are lurking around the corner, so this is the perfect time to take stock of where the CC50 stands before it gets reshuffled in the next few months.
Zach Bryan is back with a vengeance after just one brief month of having to look up at Wallen atop the podium. While most top artists saw a slight slump in their numbers in March, ZB picked up two percentage points and the lead. The wildcards had a bad month, with three out of the five failing to survive more than a month and a fourth, Blake Shelton, barely sneaking by with a 45 ranking. Overall, it was a very stable month, with few ranking changes or popularity swings.
Biggest Risers and Fallers
As y’all know, at this point, I usually use this space to make some brief commentary on the biggest gainers and try to give some insights into the industry/musical reasons for their recent success and how the artists are often interconnected. Then March decided to come along and give us five completely unrelated artists, none of whom have done anything of particular note in the last month. Don’t get me wrong, I love Treaty Oak Revival and Eric Church as much as anyone, but I’d be reaching out if I tried to make some grand declaration explaining their success here.
EDIT: Reading through this, I realize it’s not strictly true that none of these 5 have done anything of note in the last month. Contrary to my memory, Bailey Zimmerman’s “Holy Smokes” was released a couple weeks before the voting, which could be partially responsible for his gains. It’s an excellent song that is simultaneously nostalgic and funny, with some creative church/smoking puns. My editor will probably gently ask why I couldn’t just edit my original write-up rather than leave the error in and add this extra paragraph, but where’s the fun? Besides, as he can attest, the planned chaos in these columns already gives him enough of an editing workout, so we’ll give him a break here and leave this in.
Moving to the fallers, there were no dramatic shifts, but there does seem to be some fatigue with two of the biggest risers since we started these rankings: Red Clay Strays and Noah Kahan. They’ve both received a lot of coverage, and while that helps initial growth, there can be some audience fatigue associated with it, resulting in lower interest levels. Also, as an interesting observation (with no real significance), three of these five (Turnpike Troubadours, Muscadine Bloodline, Red Clay Strays) are groups. There are only five groups on the CC50, which is notable, although another, Treaty Oak Revival, was one of the biggest risers this month.
Quick Hits
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This month saw the rollback of several shifts from last month, like ZB taking the top spot back from Wallen and Chris Young’s brief moment of popularity spectacularly fizzling out (taking second to last place as a wild card), which makes a lot of sense. February’s voting saw a slightly different voter base than what we usually get, bringing in a large segment of older voters that gravitate towards the “old guard” like Chesney, Aldean, McGraw, etc. In addition, narrative-driven popularity boosts have routinely shown they don’t lead to long-term gains (see Oliver Anthony) without continuing music-driven gains to support them.
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Just a month after claiming his first #1 CC50 ranking, Wallen actually fell all the way to fourth, which is a reminder of how tight it is at the top between ZB, Wallen, Combs, CoJo, and Stapleton. Stapleton is the only one of the five to release an album since the start of CC50, but his album failed to give him any boost and dropped him back a little from the other four. It feels like any of the other four could immediately claim the top spot with a new album, but until then, we’ll watch them scrap for every .1% of the vote they can get against each other.
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I’ve already given “Holy Smokes” a shout-out, but can we take a minute to appreciate Bailey Zimmerman’s dedication to smoke-based puns? He’s already blessed us with “You Don’t Want That Smoke” and “House on Fire;” goodness, even “Fall in Love” references smoke rings. You gotta admire the effort.
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Overall engagement in March declined from last month’s peak, with an average interest percentage of 37.1% (indicating the average artist on the CC50 has over a third of the audience interested in their releases). The overall vote count sat at 366,051.
Wildcards to Watch
This was a tough month for the most recent batch of wildcards, as Conner Smith, Chris Young, and Keith Urban dropped out as quickly as they arrived, and Blake Shelton barely survived at 45. Zach Top, however, was welcomed to the fold on the back of several recent strong releases, debuting at #36. Chris Young and Keith Urban have released several new songs recently, but while they were enough to get them through the wildcard voting, the primary audience didn’t feel they belonged.
Looking ahead to the incoming five, there are a lot of familiar names. In fact, except for Gavin Adcock, they all have spent time on the CC50 at various points. Miranda Lambert topped the wildcard voting at 43% Interest, with the other 4 sitting in the 30s, which is theoretically enough to break through in the CC50. Still, the CC50 voters tend to be harsher than the Wildcard voters, so I anticipate short stints from this set. On the backs of their recent releases, Morgan Wade and Ella Langley have slowly been building up momentum in the wildcard voting. They both missed this month, but it would not be surprising to see them eventually get the call-up if they can keep this trajectory.
Lyric of the Month
“Smith County Fair
Mid-September
She walks the midway
And smiles when she remembers
Every show must end, and every circus leaves town
I didn’t know the magic left ’til all the lights went down
Now I’m back in Nacogdoches
And I swear I’m doing well
I only miss my Harlan when I hear a carousel.”
Miranda Lambert, Carousel
It was only a matter of time before I featured the best song from 2022 and arguably the best of the 2020s. The highlight of Miranda Lambert’s phenomenal yet somehow overlooked Palomino album, “Carousel,” is a masterclass in writing and production. The stripped-back, golden, hazy production that hangs above the whole album is the perfect treatment for this wistful tale of a retired circus performer, who we realize is the narrator in a surprise ending. While ostensibly about the circus (with great circus metaphors and a gorgeous carousel organ accompaniment), the lyrics dive into the simultaneous struggle and relief that come with moving on from a part of your life, whether a relationship or a career. For a whole variety of reasons, every chapter of life eventually closes. Still, the memories stick with you, and a flood of them can return at any point, much like the narrator’s experience here, walking at a local county fair and hearing carousel music. I don’t give homework to y’all very often, but take four minutes sometime next month to listen to this song, read the lyrics, and then listen again. I promise it will be worth the effort.
Well, that’s it for March’s column, I’ll let you get back to watching March Madness. By some miracle, my Vols survived the first two rounds, so be sure to tune into April’s column, where I can lament their inevitable, painful collapse in the Sweet Sixteen. But any year Kentucky loses in the first round is a good year. I’m now being told by the CC admins that it’s generally not good practice to antagonize part of your readership, but that assumes Kentucky grads can read, so I think I’ll be safe. 🙂
