Deep breaths, y’all, we’re halfway through the year! Country music is arguably as popular as it’s been in my lifetime (I’ll leave you to guess what length of time that is) and is gaining popularity and awareness in various ways. Just in the last six months, we’ve seen artists like Zach Bryan, Post Malone, Noah Kahan, and HARDY (okay, I didn’t say they were all successful in their attempts) bringing interest from fans of other genres. But it’s not only outside listeners who are bringing the popularity; at the very heart of the country, we’ve seen the likes of Luke Combs, Riley Greene, and Tyler Childers see a surge in interest this year. Even legends like Strait, Nelson, and Travis have gotten into the action, all releasing songs for the first time in what feels like forever this year. All this has led to the perfect recipe for solid results in the CC50, and sure enough, we’ve posted 2.8m total votes this year so far, and the Average Artist interest has never been higher. This month, rather than looking at the month-over-month change, let’s walk down memory lane and compare against the year-starting numbers in January!
Looking at the annual changes, the first thing that stands out is how many positive numbers there are. 31 out of 50 artists saw their audience interest increase between January and July, with an average gain of 2%. Nowhere was this surge more evident than in positions 6-15. While the established Big 5 (Wallen, ZB, Combs, CoJo, and Stapleton) have stagnated this year, some lesser stars directly behind them have rapidly risen. Green and Childers, notably, averaged a 10% rise since the start of the year and are only two points away from picking off Stapleton and disrupting the top 5 for the first time since the inception of the CC50.
One thing regarding the methodology that I forgot to mention: if an artist wasn’t present in the CC50 in January, July’s interest is compared to the first month that they appeared in the CC50. So Post Malone, for example, has his July score compared to his June score since he didn’t debut in the CC50 until June. This is why artists like Willie Nelson and Randy Travis show as big fallers, even though interest in them now is probably higher than it was in January. But they each released one song that briefly boosted interest and got them into the rankings, and now they have faded without any follow-up music.
Biggest Risers and Fallers
This year’s biggest risers list is fascinating. Here at the CC50 headquarters, we focus almost all our attention on narratives and how they impact interest in an artist. That can look like a new musical release headline or tour. The biggest riser by far, Zach Top, absolutely fits this bill. At the start of 2024, a relative unknown, with fewer than 1 in 5 country music fans interested in his music, Top now has half of all fans interested, boosting him to #13 in the rankings.
Why the rest of the top 5 looks like a mid-2000s billboard chart needs to be clarified. I am about as big a McGraw, Shelton, and Aldean fan as just about anyone (I know, I know, that’s akin to sacrilege to a large segment of our Country Central base), but to argue they are 10% more relevant at the midpoint of 2024 than they were at the start is just ludicrous from a narrative standpoint. Shelton has seen a boost from his collab with Post Malone, but Aldean and McGraw haven’t released anything this year or made any significant headlines. Instead, I suspect we’re seeing a natural shifting of the voting base. Ever since a few headlines earlier this year centering around older country artists, the voting demographic of the CC50 has broadened out from what was largely a very young voting base. This, naturally, has boosted some of the more mature artists in the rankings.
Pivoting to the most significant declines in 2024, there are not many surprises. Some, like Noah Kahan, had a brief surge in interest and are now returning to their natural resting point. Others, like Flatland Cavalry and Colter Wall, haven’t done anything of note recently and so haven’t had much buzz. Still others, like HARDY, *have* been making music, and it just hasn’t landed with listeners. The only surprise to me here is Lainey Wilson. She hasn’t had an electric 2024, but “Out of Oklahoma” was an excellent song from the Twisters soundtrack. As a result, I would expect to see her get a slight bump here in the back half of the year.
Quick Hits
- Can we take a moment to appreciate what a fabulous soundtrack Twisters has? To be sure, there are some critiques to be made, like how many songs were released ahead of time and the fact that the final product felt slightly bloated. Overall, it was one of the most musically interesting, but still perfectly tied to the story’s narrative and soundtracks I’ve listened to. There were multiple points during the movie when I heard how they used the song that felt like, “Ah, that’s what they were going for with that song.” Yet, almost all the songs felt like interesting tracks independent of the movie, which is a rarity. All around, it was a job well done.
- We’ve written about Oliver Anthony over the past year at CC50 since he was a narrative star. But, as he exits the CC50, almost certainly for good, it feels only fitting to give him one last final shoutout. Anthony perfectly embodied the kind of thing the CC50 tries to measure. He is a complete unknown who shot to fame to the point where 58% of you were interested in new music from him back in August 2023 and now has less than a quarter of the audience interested. One-hit wonders are not new; there will be more in the coming years. When they do, we’ll be ready here at CC50 to track their rise and fall.3
- Overall listener interest increased by nearly two whole points in July, with a percentage of 41.2% (indicating that the average artist on the CC50 has 4 in 10 audience members interested in their releases). The overall vote count was 346,470.
Wildcard Watch
Sure enough, just one month after Jelly Roll set the highest debut ever for a wildcard, George Strait similarly made a splash, coming in at #11 with an eye-popping 52% Interest mark. Strait still has pulling power, and if he continues to release quality music, I see no reason why he shouldn’t be a staple towards the top of the rankings. Entering the CC50 from the Wildcard voting this month, we see four familiar faces in 49 Winchester: Gavin Adcock, Carrie Underwood, and Midland. I don’t see these having more staying power than their previous performances. However, Midland recently released “Old Fashioned Feeling,” and other older artists like Carrie have seen recent success in the CC50. Of more interest is first-timer Ella Langley, who cruised through the wildcard voting with 56% interest, a full 15% higher than any other wildcard. She was already trending upward and hit gold with her Riley Green collab “You Look Like You Love Me.” If she follows up on that success, she has the fanbase behind her to stay in the CC50 for a while.
Thanks for joining us again here in July 2024. It’s been a fun year here at CC50, and we wouldn’t be here if it weren’t for y’all voting and reading these columns each month. Six months ago, ZB looked untouchable at #1, Riley Green and Tyler Childers were hopelessly trailing the Big 5, HARDY was a top 15 artist, and Zach Top, Post Malone, and George Strait weren’t even on the CC50. I can’t tell you what it will look like in January 2025 (otherwise, you would probably know my name for something other than goofy country music articles). Still, I can promise you there will be a whole new load of surprises that, if we were told today, we probably wouldn’t believe. Until August, stay cool, see Twisters (seriously, it’s a great film), and vote in next month’s CC50 and Wildcard voting!
