As the 58th Annual CMA Awards approach, speculation is heating up around who will take home country music’s top honors. This year’s nominees showcase a blend of seasoned legends and rising stars, making for a competitive and unpredictable race across categories. From the enduring dominance of Luke Combs and Chris Stapleton to breakout contenders like Megan Moroney and Jelly Roll, many of these categories will be extremely tight. In these predictions, I’ll be breaking down the leading favorites, potential dark horses, that could pull ahead of the field at this year’s awards!
Entertainer of the Year
- Luke Combs
- Jelly Roll
- Chris Stapleton
- Morgan Wallen
- Lainey Wilson
After Lainey Wilson’s baffling victory last year, look for the CMA constituency to play this vote a bit safer. Chris Stapleton has had another always-stellar, never-surprising year, and Luke Combs remains one of the biggest names in the format. Jelly Roll solidifies himself as a household name, but without a big hit to his name in 2024, he doesn’t feel quite qualified to pull the upset. As for Morgan Wallen, without the backing of a major label like Sony or Warner, it’s unlikely that he’ll have the voting power to get it done. Ultimately, Entertainer of the Year is predominantly a touring award, so look for Luke or Stapleton to vy for this win.
- The favorite: Chris Stapleton
- Keep an eye on: Luke Combs
Single of the Year
- “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” – Shaboozey
- “Dirt Cheap” – Cody Johnson
- “I Had Some Help” – Post Malone (feat. Morgan Wallen)
- “Watermelon Moonshine” – Lainey Wilson
- “White Horse” – Chris Stapleton
With several massive crossover smashes already on the books, this should be an exciting category for country music this year. However, it’s hard to imagine that the stiffs inside the Nashville beltway will be keen to snub their favorite stars for a relative outsider like Post Malone or Shaboozey. “White Horse” feels like a boring pick, but as CMA golden boy Chris Stapleton’s biggest hit in years, it should be in the driver’s seat to snag this award. However, if there was an easy award to throw Lainey’s way, it might just be this one. “Dirt Cheap” is far and away the best song here, but without the radio impact that “White Horse” and “Watermelon Moonshine” enjoyed, CoJo is on the outside looking in.
- The favorite: “White Horse”
- Keep an eye on: “Watermelon Moonshine”
Album of the Year
- “Deeper Well” – Kacey Musgraves
- “Fathers & Sons” – Luke Combs
- “Higher” – Chris Stapleton
- “Leather” – Cody Johnson
- “Whitsitt Chapel” – Jelly Roll
Picking the favorite on this one shouldn’t be difficult. You can already hear Jelly Roll breathlessly pontificating about how blessed he is to be on that stage with the Album of the Year trophy in hand, reminding everyone that they can do anything they put their mind to. Even though Whitsitt Chapel came out over a year ago, its success is still the biggest driving force in Mr. Roll’s country music career. However, you can never count out Stapleton, even though Higher mostly fizzled commercially after “White Horse” ran its course. Luke Combs and CoJo may get votes based on overall likeability, but neither of their albums enjoyed the requisite acclaim to make them serious contenders.
- The favorite: Whitsitt Chapel
- Keep an eye on: Higher
Song of the Year
- “Burn It Down”
- “Dirt Cheap”
- “I Had Some Help”
- “The Painter”
- “White Horse”
If Cody Johnson has a prayer to take home any of these awards, this feels like the one, though ironically, he didn’t have a hand in writing either of the songs that landed him these nods. “The Painter” was a #1 song on country radio and has the right blend of soft sentimentality and traditional country musicality that would make voters feel good about their choice. As always, Chris Stapleton looms large, especially on the strength of the massive “White Horse” single, although for a songwriting award, it’s not quite on par with CoJo’s offerings.
- The favorite: “The Painter”
- Keep an eye on: “White Horse”
Female Vocalist of the Year
- Kelsea Ballerini
- Ashley McBryde
- Megan Moroney
- Kacey Musgraves
- Lainey Wilson
Some old fuddy-duddies will try to insist that Megan Moroney is still too “new” to seriously contend for this award; one glance across the country music internet should put those stale predictions to rest. Meg is unequivocally the biggest female star in country music today, and in a just world, she would be the favorite to win this category. However, if last year’s Entertainer of the Year win taught us anything, it’s that the CMA voters like Lainey Wilson a lot more than the public generally does, and she should still be regarded as the frontrunner for this category. Even so, with the year Meg has had, it’s not impossible that she steals this award ahead of schedule.
- The favorite: Lainey Wilson
- Keep an eye on: Megan Moroney
Male Vocalist of the Year
- Luke Combs
- Jelly Roll
- Cody Johnson
- Chris Stapleton
- Morgan Wallen
The way this category is stacked makes it feel like a consolation prize for the year’s Entertainer of the Year runner-up. Chris Stapleton would be a very deserving pick, with a strong album and his status solidified as the most impressive “vocalist” in any category. Luke Combs has had a good year, but apart from his massive tour, he’s done little to catch the attention of the industry. If anything, this category feels ripe for Jelly Roll to capture the spotlight at another award show and remind everyone how far he’s come in his life.
- The favorite: Jelly Roll
- Keep an eye on: Chris Stapleton
Vocal Group of the Year
- Lady A
- Little Big Town
- Old Dominion
- The Red Clay Strays
- Zac Brown Band
Eh, another rubber-stamped award for Old Dominion, who had a thoroughly unimpressive year but will once again be rewarded for their placid servitude to the Nashville machine. The Red Clay Strays would be incredibly deserving but are so far outside the mainstream purview that it’s hard to imagine them having a prayer. Next, please!
- The favorite: Old Dominion
- Keep an eye on: Idk, some other category
Vocal Duo of the Year
- Brooks & Dunn
- Brothers Osborne
- Dan + Shay
- Maddie & Tae
- The War and Treaty
This category is a lot like Group of the Year, with a bunch of equally undeserving acts who have contributed little to country music at large but without an obvious shoo-in winner like Old Dominion. Brooks & Dunn could steal this one as a lifetime achievement, with their latest victory lap coming in the form of their album Reboot 2. Otherwise, it’s a veritable toss-up between perennial favs Dan + Shay and Brothers Osborne, neither of whom has released any music this year.
- The favorite: Who knows tbh
- Keep an eye on: Brooks & Dunn, I guess
Musical Event of the Year
- “Cowboys Cry Too” – Kelsea Ballerini (with Noah Kahan)
- “I Had Some Help” – Post Malone (feat. Morgan Wallen)
- “I Remember Everything” – Zach Bryan (feat. Kacey Musgraves)
- “Man Made a Bar” – Morgan Wallen (feat. Eric Church)
- “you look like you love me” – Ella Langley (feat. Riley Green)
This is a pretty interesting category. All of these songs feel like they have an obvious defect that should prevent them from serious contention. Post and Zach are outsiders. Kelsea and Noah’s song wasn’t big enough or country enough. Ella and Riley still feel pretty new to the scene in the eyes of the CMA big-wigs. And, of course, Morgan Wallen’s song was released by Morgan Wallen. If a favorite had to be chosen, “Man Made a Bar” feels like the right pick, as a big radio song with strong ties to the mainstream inner circle. “you look like you love me” would be an awesome dark horse, but it’s hard to tell if the CMA voters will really be trendy enough to pick it.
- The favorite: “Man Made a Bar”
- Keep an eye on: “you look like you love me”
Music Video of the Year
- “Dirt Cheap” – Cody Johnson
- “I Had Some Help” – Post Malone (feat. Morgan Wallen)
- “I’m Not Pretty” – Megan Moroney
- “The Painter” – Cody Johnson
- “Wildflowers and Wild Horses” – Lainey Wilson
Just like the one before it, this category doesn’t have an obvious winner. If we’re going for sentimentality, “Dirt Cheap” is the way to go. If we’re going for style points, “I’m Not Pretty” is the easy choice. It’s hard to tell how kindly the voters will look on the pop-star glamour of Meg’s self-directed video or the dumb-fun bombast of “I Had Some Help.” With their cinematic narratives and down-home settings, CoJo’s two nominations feel like the safest picks. Even so, if this ends up being the year the CMA Awards crown Megan Moroney, this would be a very deserving award to hand her.
- The favorite: “Dirt Cheap”
- Keep an eye on: “I’m Not Pretty”
New Artist of the Year
- Megan Moroney
- Shaboozey
- Nate Smith
- Mitchell Tenpenny
- Zach Top
- Bailey Zimmerman
Outside of the Group of the Year category, there is no category easier to pick than this one. Megan Moroney may win this award unanimously, with the year she’s had and the utter lack of star power that her unimpressive male competitors offer. If Bailey Zimmerman released more than two bad songs this year, he might have had a shot, but under the circumstances, it feels like a category tailor-made for an easy Meg dub.
- The favorite: Megan Moroney
- Keep an eye on: *checks notes* Megan Moroney
